SPEECH BY HON RAILA A. ODINGA EGH FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF THE REPUBLIC OF KENYA AT THE 8TH EISA ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM HILTON HOTEL, SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG; 26TH, SEPTEMBER, 2013
Elections, electoral politics and coalition building in Africa:
Is democracy on trial?
EISA Executive Director,
Members of the EISA Board of Directors,
Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me first congratulate the Electoral Institute for Sustainable
Democracy in Africa for the valuable work it is doing across Africa.
Over the last decade, ISA has transformed itself as a credible,
efficient and professional organization in the Continent, working mainly
in the areas of strengthening electoral processes, political parties
and the legislatures in Africa.
The Eighth Symposium could not have come at a better time, focusing as
it does on the emergence of coalitions as the future in Africa.
Not
too long ago, as the Berlin wall started falling in Europe and new
nations began to emerge out of the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the
western world cheered the triumph of democracy and the demise of what
Ronald Reagan once called" the evil empire".
Except
for the bloody conflicts in former Yugoslavia and the unfinished agenda
of national liberation in Chechnya, most of these "new nations" in
Europe have settled down to be stable democracies where electoral
politics as a means of forming and changing governments is accepted and
democracy has more or less become institutionalized.
In
Africa, the opposite is quite often the case: winners force their
victory on losers who, quite understandably, cry foul and only succumb
to electoral outcomes as fait accompli.
The
democratic upsurge of the early 1990s that challenged post independence
authoritarian regimes in Africa all seem to have met with tremendous
resistance as new forms of authoritarian rule emerge and democratic
gains get reversed.
If
anything, every cycle of competitive electoral politics, or semi
competitive as the case may be, has brought with it conflicts and crises
that quite often disrupt the very foundations of the nation state
itself.
Today, the threat of violence hangs over almost every election in
Africa because as politics has got ever more competitive, a number of
leaders have resorted to ethnic, as opposed to ideologically driven
alliances and modes of mobilization in our multi-ethnic societies.
This
strategy has emphasized ethnic group sizes in determining one’s value
in politics. In this arrangement, the smaller your ethnic group, the
less your chances of being invited to the high table of ethnic
share-outs that pass for coalitions.
The
politicization of ethnicity is having deep negative effects on national
unity in Africa. It determines whether members of different groups
within the nation perceive each other as friends or foes.
It
determines whether a regime stays at the top and whether it succeeds or
tumbles down. When people are mobilized as ethnic groups and not as
followers of some ideology, it will not matter how well or badly the
regime performs in terms of delivering national programs. The nation
comes last. This is the latest threat to democracy and stability in Africa.
Presidential
elections are once again becoming zero sum games in which the winners
take all while the loser loses everything. Winning or losing is about
survival, not delivery of services to the nation.
In this scenario, ignored groups tend to regroup and fight back as
members of ethnic groups. While citizens can easily walk away from the
table where they are considered useless because of their dismal ethnic
numbers, they will not simply walk away from the table where the
national cake is being divided. They will demand their share, somehow.
The mounting momentum of ethnic based coalitions is, sadly, coinciding
with the re-emergence of the Big Man in Africa; a species we assumed
dead and buried about a decade ago.
By the beginning of the 21st Century, the authoritarianism that characterized most of Africa for decades was in retreat.
The “Big Men” were swept out in rapid turns from Zambia, through
Malawi, Zaire and Kenya. Elections were being fought fiercely in an
arena in which democratic aspirations of the people were largely
reflected in the results.
Where authoritarianism persisted, it was vigorously challenged. Africa’s grand march to democracy seemed irreversible.
Today,
the “Big Men” are being reincarnated, in some cases, sadly, in the
luminaries of the Second Liberation. They are inventing new tricks of
survival; recruiting new converts and revising progressive constitutions
to give themselves more power and longer terms while all the time
tightening their grip on the nations.
Africa’s
new Big Men know times have changed. They know they cannot rule by the
gun or by decree anymore. So, they too have changed.
Today,
they pose as democrats by organizing periodic elections, which they
must win at all costs. They adhere to constitutions; but only after
amending them to suit their intentions.
They
purport to create free and independence Judiciary, then try to pack the
courts of law with their loyalists, just incase some opposition leaders
or civil society types decide to try their chances at justice in the
courts. In other words, they leave nothing to chance.
In
all cases the resistance to institutionalizing the democratic political
culture comes from the entrenched economic and political interests
within the ruling parties that have run the post colonial state since
independence, or those that have hijacked the popular movements and
converted them into cheer leaders in support of ethnic-based
authoritarian rulers.
When they reverse the democratic gains, the ideological justification is usually framed in terms of Africa's uniqueness.
In
their world, the problems democracy faces are not the results of the
roadblocks put on the highway to democratization but the unsuitability
of democracy itself to the African society.
This twisted logic needs to be rebuffed in view of reasonably
successful processes of democratization in such countries as Senegal,
South Africa, Mozambique, Ghana and Botswana.
Against
this background, it is fitting to laud Africa’s opposition leaders that
enter the ring year in, year out to take on ruling parties, knowing
well enough that the odds are hugely against them.
Think
of the job Morgan Tsvangirai is doing in Zimbabwe or the struggles of
Kizza Besigiye in Uganda or the faith of Alassane Ouatara in Ivory Coast
that led to his confirmation to the presidency. These are Africa’s real
foot soldiers for democracy.
Together
with exceptional cases like Senegal and Ghana, these leaders provide
hope for competitive electoral politics, coalition building and the
institutionalization of democracy in Africa.
In
Senegal, for example, long time resistance and opposition to the ruling
Socialist Party, founded by Leopold Sedar Senghor at the dawn of
independence, saw the emergence of ideologically based coalitions in
2001 that finally uprooted the Socialist Party from power.
The beneficiary of this coalition, Abdoulaye Wade of the
Liberal-leaning Senegalese Democratic Party, lost power subsequently in
the elections of 2012 partly as a result of being seen to have betrayed
the ideological commitments he had made with his coalition partners, and
partly as a result of the perceived excesses in his government.
His regime was accused of complicity in several acts of corruption. His
attempts to change the constitution to remove the two term limit so as
to run for a third term added to his electoral woes while his opponents,
comprising some of his former partners in government, capitalized on
the betrayal and corruption issues, building a big enough electoral bloc
to wrestle power from him in the 2012 elections.
But we must hasten to give Mr. Wade credit. In many places on the
Continent, the opposition, however organized and popular, would not have
wrestled power from the ruling party as happened in Senegal. The
incumbent ruling party would have survived the electoral onslaught
through the manipulation of the electoral process, use of state security
organs to intimidate voters and outright cheating in the announcement
of results.
Cameroon, for instance, presents the opposite picture of Senegal. The
first multiparty elections were held in Cameroon in 1992, administered
by Cameroon's Ministry of Territorial Administration despite requests by
the opposition for an independent election commission to conduct the
polls.
Amidst
widespread reports of electoral fraud, Paul Biya narrowly defeated his
main opposition coalition rival by 39 per cent to 36 per cent.
International election observers concluded that "the Cameroon
government, for which President Biya bears ultimate responsibility, took
unusual extreme and illegitimate actions to ensure the President's
victory. This led inexorably to the conclusion that the election was
flawed to the point where its legitimacy and validity are called into
question."
Subsequent elections after this 1992 experience have proved no better.
If anything the Biya regime simply perfected the art of manipulating the
electoral process in its favor and making a mockery of democracy in the
eyes of the Cameroonian people. Governance institutions characteristic
of a democratic polity such as an independent judiciary, a vibrant
legislature and a civil society capable of keeping the state accountable
to the people have all been subordinated to Biya's authoritarian rule,
making it virtually impossible for any coalition to win elections
against Biya's party in contemporary Cameroon.
So Senegal is somehow unique regarding the fate of coalition politics
and democracy in Africa, and her case should be carefully studied
regarding what needs to be done to nurture competitive electoral
politics as an important aspect of institutionalizing democracy in
Africa. Overtime, Senegal has seen a vigorous civil society emerge and
stay the cause.
The
institutions of the democratic state--though substantially dominated by
the presidency, have remained sufficiently strong to withstand the
excesses of creeping authoritarianism. This has made it possible for
political coalitions to take advantage of competitive electoral politics
to peacefully change governments through elections.
Further,
reasonably independent election bodies, very contrary to experiences in
other African countries, have handled refereeing political competition
in Senegal.
I
particularly recall the case of Cote d'Ivoire in 2010 where the
election results announced by the legitimate electoral commission was
rejected and overturned by the very government of then President Laurent
Gbagbo who had overseen the unveiling of that election team.
With the benefit of hindsight, I could share a number of insights on competitive politics in Africa.
We must, with bold determination, remain committed long-term to good
governance and leadership, whether we are Kenyan, Nigerian, Zimbabwean,
South African or citizens of any other country on this great continent.
We must push vigorously for the independence and professionalism of police and national intelligence.
We
must, through more coalitions if need be, bring more willing and
committed partners on board, joining together to make democratic change –
and all that this entails – not just possible, but a reality.
As a Pan Africanist, I believe that just like many other battles
African citizens have fought in the past, this too we shall fight and
win.
Thank you.
Raila A. Odinga EGH
